Arizona Election Tipping Point – The Atlantic

WITHstrange things can happen in the desert. On Wednesday morning in San Tan Valley, Arizona, I watched as Kari Lake, a Republican Senate candidate, came within feet of violating a major election law.

Lake’s campaign bus had just pulled into the early voting site about an hour southeast of Phoenix. Along the path leading to the entrance to the site there was a yellow sign with the inscription: LIMIT 75 FEET. The post warned that campaigning beyond that threshold would constitute a Class 2 misdemeanor. Lake, as was her inclination, swam straight to the line with a knowing smile.

I stood nearby, watching Lake cheer and pose for selfies with voters who seemed surprised to see her. I heard her ask a man if he voted for Donald Trump. During the election campaign, she found time to attack the media. When I told her that I was writing a report for Atlanticshe responded, “Oh, is this a really, really, really biased publication?” (Three Reallyc.) Lake appeared to be speaking in front of cameras, but there were none at this stop except for cameras from her own campaign. It was just me and three other journalists with notebooks. No matter: it was Lake Kari, after all. Bombast is her brand.

Lake may be the best-filed MAGA candidate in the country. (Phrase MAKE ARIZONA GREAT AGAIN Lake, a former local television anchor, first gained national attention by promoting Trump’s lies and conspiracy theories about the 2020 Arizona election results. When she ran for governor of Arizona in 2022, she refused to admit defeat. Most candidates make a name for themselves on a specific issue; Election denial, more than anything else, became Lake’s defining factor.

Lake, once considered a potential running mate for Trump in 2024, is now challenging Democrat Ruben Gallego for the Arizona Senate seat soon to be vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. The RealClearPolitics polling average suggests she could be on the verge of another loss. Meanwhile, Trump appears poised to retake the top-ranked state. While no result is guaranteed, on Tuesday in a border state plagued by division and extremism, both Democrats And the Republican may emerge victorious.

This result would come as a shock to many. This may be especially galling for conspiracy theorists and those who have questioned the validity of American election systems for years. In other words, people like Kari Lake.

Read: In Lake Kari, Trumpism has found its leading lady

That morning she answered questions from three other reporters, but looked at me and said, “I’m not talking to your publication.” So instead I turned to one of her confidants, Richard Grenell, who was Trump’s ambassador to Germany and then acting director of national intelligence. Grenell was also against it Atlantic near the lake just a few minutes ago. (Like Trump at a recent rally, Grenell claimed without evidence that our editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg “made up a lot of stuff.”) But now, more calmly stepping aside, he was ready to talk to me.

I told Grenell that I planned to ask Lake a direct question: Will she commit to accepting the election results next week? He laughed at the premise.

“It’s a stupid question: ‘Do you accept the election results?’ Grenell told me. He said that “of course” she would have accepted the result if the election had been free and fair. “Let me ask you this question,” he said. “Do you think there is no fraud in the elections? Zero fraud?”

Lake saw me talking to Grenell, and as she walked back to her bus, we made eye contact. The crowd was smaller now, and Lake was chatting at a slightly lower volume. Professional wrestlers have a term for performative antagonization of an opponent: kayfabe. However, from what I had seen of Lake up to this point, I didn’t think she was Always broke out of her belligerent persona when speaking to the media. When we spoke briefly one-on-one, Lake wasn’t exactly friendly, but she was at least willing to let me finish the sentence. I asked her if she would accept the election results.

“Legal elections? Yes, absolutely,” she said. “One hundred percent.”

But how can we determine this?

Suddenly her switch flipped. With a bright smile and sarcasm in her voice, Lake said, “I will absolutely accept the results of the election!” She then quickly returned to the bus.

George Packer: What will become of American civilization?

lafter that day I drove to a mall in Maryvale, a predominantly Latino neighborhood in metro Phoenix, to meet Gallego, Lake’s rival. Arizona Democrats set up a bustling field office between a hair salon and a check cashing place. Inside the room, Papel Picado banners hung from the ceiling, the walls were covered with posters: “Hispanics vs. Harris Waltz,” “Democrats Protegen El Aborto” — and at the far end of the room, someone had handwritten a bunch of motivational quotes (“If You have the opportunity to do something better, and you don’t do it, then you’re wasting your time on Earth.” – Roberto Clemente When I turned around, I saw Gallego chatting with the volunteers from that day. He was dressed casually, in a short-sleeved button-down shirt and jeans, and was not surrounded by a large entourage like Lake. He and I found a quiet corner and I asked him the same question I asked Lake: would he commit to accepting the election results? He didn’t hesitate.

“I trust Arizona’s election system. I trust the Republicans and Democrats who run the state, and I will trust the results of the election, win or lose,” Gallego said.

Right now, the 44-year-old is in the rare position of knowing he has a chance to defeat lake-wary Republicans. He is a Democrat, but as a former Marine who has spoken out on culture war issues, such as opposing the use of Hispaniche can appeal to some centrists and independents as well. Above all, he has the opportunity to win over some of the most sought-after and compelling voters in the region: Latinos. Sometimes he tells a story about how he grew up sleeping on the floor and didn’t have a bed until he went to college. On the stump, he often gives speeches in both Spanish and English.

What is Gallego No do to run a direct campaign along the Democratic Party line. When I asked him how he felt about Joe Biden’s comments that Trump supporters were “trash,” he was quick to defend the president unambiguously. “No matter what, we shouldn’t criticize people for how they vote,” he said. I also asked him if he expected civil unrest next week, given the chaos that unfolded in Arizona in the previous election. “I really have faith in the voters of Arizona — Democrats, Republicans and independents — that they will go out to vote and be civil,” Gallego said. “I hope that politicians will actually keep this civil and not try to bring election denial into it like Kari Lake did. This where the danger occurred.”

Gallego went to this office to gather volunteers for a campaign operation. He was joined by Senator Mark Kelly and his wife, former Representative Gabby Giffords. That same day, I asked Kelly what problems he and his fellow Arizona Democrats expected after Election Day and whether he believed Lake (and Trump, for that matter) would accept the election results. “They must– Kelly said carefully. “I mean, I don’t expect their behavior to be very different from what it was in the 2020 and 2022 elections. I mean I have no reason expect What. But you know, you can always dream that maybe they learned their lesson,” he said. “Kari Lake definitely should have learned her lesson.”