College Football Playoff Bracket for Week 11: Top Four Seed Projections, First Round Matchups, Bubble Teams

We expanded the four-team College Football Playoff to 12 teams, at least in part because of the repetition of the same teams in the postseason.

The five remaining undefeated teams in the FBS have combined to make the playoffs once in the last 10 years. Oregon (9-0) made the CFP in 2014 — and it’s almost certain to be ranked No. 1 in Tuesday’s first set of rankings.

Indiana (9-0) is another undefeated team in the Big Ten. Miami (9-0) remains perfect in the ACC. BYU (8-0) is the only undefeated team in the Big 12. Army (8-0) is the last undefeated team in Group 5. Have we expanded the playoffs to include the usual suspects?

Let’s see how the committee feels about these undefeated teams. Keep an eye on these indicators.

How many SEC teams with one loss would be ahead of Miami?

Texas and Georgia had major problems in the fourth quarter over the past two weeks, but managed to escape. The Hurricanes were forfeited after beating Virginia Tech and Cal and haven’t faced a ranked team all season. Will Miami beat Texas and Georgia? We don’t think so, but keep an eye out to see if the committee inserts a third SEC team like Tennessee ahead of the Hurricanes. This will provide insight into how the committee perceives the ACC race. Georgia beat Clemson 34-3 in Week 1. This will be against the entire conference and may mean one conference bid.

What will be the difference in rankings with BYU?

The Big 12 champion will earn an automatic bid, and that No. 4 seed will be scrutinized by fans of Texas, Ohio State and any other team listed as a first-round playoff host. This will be compounded by the fact that Iowa State and Kansas State lost to unranked opponents in Week 10. Don’t be surprised if BYU ends up around 10th, which could also mean one bid to that conference.

Will Indiana or Notre Dame be ranked higher?

“What year is it now?” This is another moment in the Jumanji process. The Irish lost to Northern Illinois. The Hoosiers have one win over a team with a winning record in Nebraska, and this is a classic “change the uniforms and then rank them” committee moment. Now we have both teams, but if one of them loses, it will come into play.

Each week, Sporting News provides coverage of the 12-team College Football Playoff: first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here’s what it looks like heading into Week 11:

Moved in: Indiana, Alabama

Dropped: Clemson, Texas A&M

Projected College Football Playoff First-Round Bye

No. 1 Oregon (9-0, Big Ten champion)

The Ducks dominated the Wolverines 38-17 and Dan Lanning remains in the Big Ten Tournament. Oregon led 28-10 at halftime against Michigan and scored four touchdowns on five possessions in the first half. Dillon Gabriel (22 of 34, 294 yards, TD) was in command in the Big House, and Trashaun Holden (6-149) had the game-clinching play after Tez Johnson left with a shoulder injury. The Ducks have clearly proven that they should be ranked No. 1 in the first set of rankings. The defense had seven tackles for loss and limited Michigan to 105 yards on 3.8 yards per carry. Oregon has beaten its last three opponents 111-26 and returns home against Maryland in Week 11 before traveling to Wisconsin.

No. 2 Georgia (7-1, SEC champion)

The Bulldogs barely managed to beat Florida, 34-20, which was much closer than it seemed. Carson Beck (25 of 40, 309 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT) struggled with turnovers, and Trevor Etienne left with a rib injury. Beck did hit Dominic Lovett for the go-ahead touchdown with 4:07 left, and the Bulldogs face another road test at Ole Miss in Week 11. Georgia will still be the SEC’s highest-ranked team based on a 30-15 win over Texas on Oct. 19, but the gap isn’t as wide as it has been in the last few years.

#3 Miami (9-0, ACC champion)

Miami opened a one-score game with three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 53-31 win over Duke, pushing the Hurricanes a step closer to the ACC championship game. Cam Ward (25 of 41, 400 yards, 5 TDs, INT) had his third 400-yard game of the season, and the defense limited Duke to 80 yards and forced four turnovers. A trip to Georgia Tech, which miraculously beat the Hurricanes 23-20 last season, is a chance at redemption for Mario Cristobal.

No. 4 BYU (8-0, Big 12 champion)

The Cougars are the only Big 12 team in the field. BYU has scored 34 points or more in all but one game this season, an 18-15 win over SMU. BYU has a plus-7 turnover rate and the biggest jump on the November schedule comes in Week 11 at Utah. BYU hasn’t won at Utah since 2006.

Predicted College Football Playoff First Round Matchups

Taking a look at Sporting News, the College Football Playoff first-round matchups are predicted heading into Week 11 of the college football season:

No. 12 Boise State (7-1, Mountain West champion) and No. 5 Ohio State (7-1, Big Ten overall)

The Buckeyes are now the top team overall after a 20-13 win over Penn State. Ohio State silenced its critics with 176 yards and a goal line stand in the fourth quarter. Cody Simon starred with 10 tackles and a sack. Boise State QB Maddux Madsen (24-of-32, 307 yards, 4 TD) had his first 300-yard game of the season to lead Ashton Ginty (31-149, 2 TD) to a 56-24 win over San State. Diego. In this scenario, the Broncos would be heavy underdogs in the Shuba, but we’d like to see Jinty against this elite Ohio State defense.

BENDER: Ohio State’s clutch win shakes up Big Ten picture

No. 11 Alabama (6-2, SEC overall) and No. 6 Texas (7-1, SEC overall)

Texas and Alabama don’t meet in the regular season, so we’ll put them here. Former Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is 1-1 against the Crimson Tide against Texas, and Kalen DeBoer will also officiate that game. Alabama is the highest-ranked team with two losses, and it will be interesting to see how many one-loss teams Alabama is ahead of in the first set of CFP rankings. In Week 11, the Crimson Tide travel to LSU, the next best team with two losses. This is a big game for Kalen DeBoer.

No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1 Independent) and No. 7 Penn State (7-1 Big Ten overall)

The Irish are still our last at-large spot and have a friendly schedule in the final month of the season. Notre Dame’s defense allows just 12.2 points per game. Penn State falls to Ohio State 20-13, with James Franklin losing another top-five matchup. A first-round home game is out of the question if the Nittany Lions rule the table with the remaining Big Ten schedule.

MORE: James Franklin got into an argument with a fan after his loss

No. 9 Indiana (9-0, Big Ten overall) and No. 8 Tennessee (7-1, SEC overall)

Indiana crushed Michigan State 47-10 and started 9-0 for the first time in school history. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke (19 of 29, 263 yards, 4 touchdowns) made a strong return from a thumb injury, and Indiana erased an early 10-point deficit. The Hoosiers took advantage of two turnovers to spark an explosion. The Hoosiers face Tennessee, which trailed Kentucky in the second half before turning a pair of turnovers into touchdowns. A coaching match between Curt Cignetti and Josh Heupel would be amazing in a fast-paced game.

Projected College Football Playoff Bubble Teams

SMU (8-1, ACC)

Put the Mustangs ahead of Alabama if you will. That would mean the ACC would get two bids, and the Mustangs are in that position now after Clemson lost to Louisville 33-21. SMU led by four touchdowns at halftime in a 48-25 win over Pitt. This is SMU’s second win over a ranked team, and Kevin Jennings (17 of 25, 306 yards, 2 touchdowns) bounced back from a struggle against Duke. The Mustangs’ final three games will be against Boston College, Virginia and Cal. SMU has the opportunity to host the ACC Championship in its first year.

Texas A&M (7-2, SEC)

The Aggies lost 44-20 at South Carolina, their first loss in SEC play. Texas A&M lost leading rusher Le’Veon Moss to a leg injury, and new starting quarterback Marcel Reed (18 of 28, 206 yards, TD, INT) had a tough night against the Gamecocks. The Aggies’ yardage issues took center stage, and it was a setback for first-year coach Mike Elko. Texas A&M plays New Mexico State and Auburn before the regular season finale against Texas.

LSU (6-2, shopping center)

Brian Kelly is 1-1 against Alabama since arriving at LSU, including an impressive 32-31 win over the Crimson Tide on Nov. 5, 2022. Kelly needs this win too, and it’s not just about supporting the 17- That’s 1 home record since he arrived in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Just two weeks ago, the Tigers were a top-10 team with a wide-open runway to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. A loss here puts them out of the hunt.

Ole Miss (7-2, SEC)

The rebels are not dead yet. Ole Miss had no trouble against Arkansas in a 63-31 road win that suddenly put Lane Kiffin on the brink of the playoffs again. Jackson Dart (25 of 31, 515 yards, 6 TDs) added a team-high 47 yards in a stellar performance. Tre Harris missed the game with a lower body injury. Will he return for the match against Georgia?