close
close

Full NFL Predictions, Full Week 9 Picks

Posted on by L. Dreeye
Full NFL Predictions, Full Week 9 Picks

The Post’s Erich Richter provides his insights and predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season..

SUNDAY

Colts +5.5 over VIKINGS: Joe Flacco returned to the Indianapolis lineup, and Anthony Richardson took some hard-earned rest. The team must respond very well to this move, which gives them the best chance of winning. Minnesota is a tough place to play, but Flacco is up for the challenge. The league’s second-oldest quarterback has the seventh-highest completion percentage in blitzes this year (65.7%).

GIANTS +4 to commanders: Big Blue should have, could have, could have beaten the Commanders early in the season. Since then, Jaden Daniels has been a revelation on his way to becoming the Offensive Player of the Year, but is he healthy? He didn’t play as well last week against the Bears due to a rib injury, and for all their shortcomings, the Giants’ pass rush ranks sixth in football, according to Pro Football Focus. Big Blue got beat, Giants got upset.

Is Joe Flacco’s ageless wonder going to be another Cinderella story? Getty Images

FALCON-3 over the Cowboys: Jerry Jones has jokes, perhaps the main one being this team. With Micah Parsons out for most of the season, the Cowboys have the second-worst defense in the NFL, according to PFF. The only team worse than them defensively is the Panthers. DVOA (defensive-adjusted value above average) also hates Dallas’ defense, ranking it 29th in the NFL. By no measure are the Cowboys better than the product they put on the field. Bring back the Falcons.

BENGALS -7 over Raiders: This phrase implies that the Bengals will be just four-point favorites against the Raiders on the road. This is simply not reality. According to PFF, we’ve seen Cincinnati play against some of the best teams in the league thanks to the best passing attack in the league. Las Vegas ranks 32nd in passing defense. The Bengals swept past Antonio Pierce’s group, jumping out to an early lead and never looking back.

BROWN +1.5 to Chargers: Los Angeles is worried. Their run defense looks terrible in the first place after being one of the best units in the league. Cleveland has one of the best defenses in football, while the Chargers have the second-worst passing record over their last three games. Nick Chubb could run for Cleveland while J.K. Dobbins gets stuffed, forcing Justin Herbert to throw to a poor receiving core.

Jameis Winston put on a show against the Ravens. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Patriots +3.5 over TITANS: One of the worst games of the season starts this Sunday, and it will only get worse if Drake Maye remains inactive. This line suggests he will, as Jacoby Brissett is an immobile, extremely limited cornerback for the Patriots. However, the Titans just scored 52 points and were eliminated on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson has the opportunity to eat here regardless of who gets the shots behind center.

PANTHERS +7.5 over Saints: Derek Carr is back in New Orleans as Spencer Rattler has looked like an XFL quarterback the last few weeks. New Orleans should be able to improve their offense significantly, but their defense is abysmal. They have allowed 6.3 yards per carry over the past three weeks, by far the most in the NFL, and 5.2 yards per carry this season (second-most all season). If Carolina manages to get ahead, they can get a complete win by running through this defensive funnel.

Broncos +8.5 over RAVENS: Baltimore is a poor favorite. They score 11.6 points per fourth quarter, the most in the NFL. This is a bad way to reach a huge number of players late in the game. You simply can’t trust this lineup, especially against a stout defense that allows the fewest yards per game in the NFL (4.4).

Dolphins +6 over BILLS: Let’s not forget that the Dolphins were 2.5-point favorites in Week 2 in a game in which Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury. Now the line has moved 4.5 points and Tagovailoa is firmly in the quarterback position? I don’t think so. Miami is almost fully healthy and will need to utilize a strong offense to be successful this weekend.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins got the edge over the Bills in Week 2. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Jaguars +7.5 over EAGLES: Let’s not overreact to the insane rout the Eagles just inflicted on the Bengals. Sure, it’s a similar matchup, but not all games are the same. Jacksonville’s offense is trending in the right direction, averaging 5.9 yards per play over the last three games, while the Bengals offense is down to 5.1 yards per play. Trevor Lawrence is more than competent enough to keep this under control, and there’s also some Doug Pederson revenge factor to consider.

Bears +1 over CARDINALS: Poor coaching led to the Bears losing their Week 8 matchup to the Commanders. While Matt Eberflus will still coach, these issues can be corrected with a terrible secondary. Caleb Williams will be able to take advantage of the fourth-worst passing defense in yards per pass attempt allowed.

PACKERS +2.5 over Lions: Jared Goff is outside in the wind, where it’s expected to be colder, at Lambeau Field. Not interested in betting on Goff at this number, especially with Jordan Love expected to be active this weekend. The Packers are also allowing the eighth-fewest yards per carry in football (4.3 yards per touch), so I don’t expect Detroit’s line to simply outrun them and carry them to a win.

Jordan Love will play for the Packers despite suffering a groin injury in Week 8. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Rams -1.5 over Seahawks: This offense looks like a shell without DK Metcalf to take the top off the defense. He’s out of the expected penalty shootout this weekend, and the same could possibly be said for Rams star receiver Puka Nacua, who is questionable. The difference here isn’t just the two receivers, it’s also the defense. Seattle has the worst defense, according to DVOA, allowing 6.5 yards per play in its last three games, third-worst in football. The Rams have a better defense and are healthier, especially if Nacua suits up.

MONDAY

Buccaneers +9 over CHIEFS: Tampa Bay loves to be in penalty shootouts, and the Chiefs aren’t built that way. Kansas City has only beaten two teams by double digits this year, one of which is the Awful Saints. The oddsmakers are excited about the Chiefs defense, and rightly so, but the Buccaneers offense (6.8 yards per play, third) should keep that defense within reach with a potent run attack.

Betting on the NFL?

Last week: 6-9
Season: 52-62-1.

Why trust New York Post rates

Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season, he showed huge gains to The Post in the player props market over the past two seasons. Even though he consistently bets big, his return on investment since 2022 is 30.15 percent.