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4 Trades the Detroit Tigers Could Make to Fix Issues at 1B

Posted on by L. Dreeye
4 Trades the Detroit Tigers Could Make to Fix Issues at 1B

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Should the Detroit Tigers trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Imagine these players taking the field on Opening Day 2025: Guerrero at first base, free agent Alex Bregman at third base, Colt Keith at second base, Riley Greene in left field, Parker Meadows in center field and Kerry Carpenter in right field. . Tarik Skubal as starting pitcher.

This is a World Series caliber team.

The reality of the situation is that Skubal will be under team control for the next two seasons before becoming a free agent. If the Tigers can’t sign Skubal to a contract extension, then they need to give themselves the best chance to win the World Series with him on the roster in 2025 and 2026. To achieve this, the Tigers would be wise to replace the first baseman. Spencer Torkelson, at least in the short term.

SALARY FORECAST FOR 2025: At $80 million, there is no reason for the Tigers not to spend big.

Here are four hypothetical trades for the Tigers to upgrade first base with a right-handed hitter before the 2025 season, using the Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles as trade partners.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Tigers acquire: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays acquire: RHP Reese Olson, 2B/3B Jace Young, RHP Matt Manning, SS Jose Dixon.

Hype: Guerrero, a four-time All-Star, is under team control for one more season – projected to earn about $30 million in his final year of salary arbitration – before becoming a free agent after the 2025 season in search of a lucrative 10-year contract. A contract that could mirror what Juan Soto gets this offseason.

The 25-year-old hit .323 with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS in 159 games during the 2024 season. He has been a top-10 hitter in baseball the last four seasons. It’s unlikely the Blue Jays will trade Guerrero this offseason, but if the Blue Jays realize they can’t sign him to a contract extension, skip the Soto sweepstakes, or commit to rebuilding their roster with a focus on the future, perhaps they will. will do. trade him within the next five months, before the 2025 Opening Day. Ultimately, Guerrero’s return will benefit the Blue Jays now and in the future: Olson is a borderline All-Star pitcher under team control in 2029, Young in 2030, Manning in 2027, and Dixon still playing in Dominican Republic Summer League. . Jung is ranked as the Tigers’ fifth-ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline.

However, for this trade to happen, the Tigers would need to sign Bregman to play third base and go all-in to win the championship in 2025. If Guerrero isn’t available this offseason, perhaps the Tigers could sign veteran Carlos Santana to one of them. A one-year deal and return to trading Guerrero at the deadline to get the superstar on a three-month loan with goals of reaching the World Series in the postseason.

Also, remember when the Tigers traded Miguel Cabrera in December 2007 (with two years left on his contract) and signed him to a contract extension in March 2008? The big difference is that Guerrero only has one year left on his contract, so after nearly 10 years with the Blue Jays since signing as a big-name teenage international free agent, it’s almost impossible to imagine him missing out on the opportunity to reach the Open. . market – unless his team actually gives him carte blanche.

WORLD SERIES ENDS: What you need to know about the Tigers in the 2024-25 offseason

Yandy Diaz

Tigers acquire: 1B Yandy Diaz.

Rays acquire: RHP Casey Mize, RHP Troy Melton.

Hype: Trading Diaz, a former All-Star, is more feasible than trading for Guerrero, but the Rays have been reluctant to consider offers for Diaz lately. The 33-year-old hit .281 with 14 home runs and a .755 OPS in 145 games during the 2024 season, finishing as the top hitter on a team with a below-average offense. His .303 batting average ranks fifth among 230 qualified hitters over the last three seasons, and his .383 on-base percentage ranks sixth, and Diaz won the batting title in 2023.

Diaz has a contract worth $10 million in 2025 and a team option for $12 million in 2026 (no buyout), so the Tigers will have him for two seasons, allowing them to consciously hand over major responsibilities to prospect Josue Briceño. in 2027. The Rays need offense, but the Rays historically covet pitchers with above-average vertical break in their fastballs, which is a strength of both Mize (16.2 inches) and Melton (17 inches). In 2024, Mize posted a 4.49 ERA with 29 walks and 78 strikeouts in 102⅓ innings in 22 games (20 starts) for the Tigers. The former No. 1 overall pick will remain under team control through the end of the 2026 season.

If Mize opens up as a top slider, he should establish himself as a consistent starter with room to grow in the middle of the rotation, but if not, he could be pushed into a long-term bullpen stint. Melton is considered the Tigers’ No. 11 prospect. He registered a 5.10 ERA with 30 walks and 119 strikeouts in 100⅔ innings in 23 starts for Double-A Erie in 2024, his second full season in the minor leagues. He has the tools and the team to become an MLB starter, perhaps as early as 2025.

COMPOSITION OF 40 PEOPLE: Evaluating each Tigers player entering the offseason ahead of the 2025 campaign

Rhys Hoskins

Tigers acquire: 1B Rhys Hoskins.

Brewers purchase: RHP Dylan Smith.

Hype: Unsurprisingly, Hoskins exercised his $18 million player option and returned to the Brewers in 2025. He’s not worth that price – the second-highest paid player on the team – so a pay cut could be in the offing. cards, especially since prospect Tyler Black is ready to start at first base for the Brewers. The contract also includes an $18 million mutual option for 2026 (with a $4 million buyout) that either team would forgo if Hoskins doesn’t experience renewed production at the plate. The 31-year-old hit .214 with 26 home runs, 53 walks and 149 strikeouts in 131 games during the 2024 season, returning from left ACL surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2023 campaign. Hoskins had career-worst batting average (.214), on-base percentage (.303), OPS (.722) and strikeout percentage (28.8%), a dismal drop from .242 with a .353 OBP. 0.846 OPS. and a 24% strikeout rate from 2017-22. That makes Hoskins a good fit as a buy-and-tackle candidate for the Tigers in a trade.

On the comeback front, Smith has prospect profile as a third-round draft pick in 2021, but his development has not progressed over the past three seasons, due in part to injuries. He posted a 4.40 ERA with 31 walks and 59 strikeouts in 57⅓ innings in 14 games (13 starts) for High-A Western Michigan in 2024, missing approximately three months with a right shoulder injury. If he can stay healthy, he has upside as a two-pitch MLB pitcher due to his average fastball and above-average slider. But Smith doesn’t have the makings to be a major league starter. All things considered, the Tigers may be ready to move on from the often-failed project.

Ryan Mountcastle

Tigers acquire: 1B Ryan Mountcastle.

The Orioles acquire: RHP Ty Madden, LHP Lael Lockhart.

Hype: Not only is Mountcastle close friends with Green as a classmate at Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Florida, but he has also been an above-average hitter (but far from an elite hitter) in each of his five MLB seasons, despite his free-swinging approach. The 27-year-old is under team control for two more seasons – projected to earn about $6.6 million in his penultimate year of salary arbitration – before becoming a free agent after the 2026 season. The Orioles, however, have expressed interest in trading Mountcastle, opening the door for top-100 prospects Kobe Mayo and Samuel Basallo to play first base.

Mountcastle hit .271 with 13 home runs, 27 walks and 114 strikeouts in 124 games during the 2024 season. The high chase, low walk approach doesn’t suit the Tigers, but it does provide enough contact to benefit from hitting the ball hard. His .745 OPS ranks 110th among 230 qualified hitters over the last three seasons, including a .733 OPS last season that ranked 15th among 25 first basemen. With Mountcastle being expendable, the Orioles need to add MLB-ready starting pitchers at the upper levels of the minor leagues. In 2024, Madden posted a 2.55 ERA in four starts in Double-A Erie, a 7.79 ERA in 18 starts in Triple-A Toledo and a 4.30 ERA in six games (one start) in MLB. He could be a slider pitcher with a fastball, but he has the advantage of being a starter because of his developing splitter. Lockhart has Triple-A depth because his fastball averages just 88.7 mph and his splitter has an incredible 54.8% whiff rate. A 2021 first-round draft pick, Madden is the No. 14 overall prospect in the Tigers’ farm system; Lockhart is ranked 26th.

WHAT WE LEARNED: What we’ve learned about the Tigers in 2024: Is there hope for the No. 1 draft pick?

Contact or follow Evan Petzold at [email protected]. @EvanPetzold.

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