Swing State Iowa in 2024? New poll shows leadership change in presidential race

DES MOINES, Iowa (Iowa State Capitol Bureau Gray Media) – A new poll shows significant changes in the presidential race in Iowa and raises questions about whether the state is once again a “swing state.”

The Mediacom Iowa poll in Des Moines reflects a surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and shows why activists have become much more optimistic about their party’s chances since she took over from President Joe Biden. .

Biden ended his re-election campaign in July.

The new poll of 808 likely voters shows a seven-point shift from September, when Trump led 47% to 43% and Harris now leads 47% to 44%.

The difference between the two candidates in the latest poll is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.

View the full survey here.

Women play a key role in supporting Harris. The poll shows that women who are not registered with either party (Independents) are leaning towards Harris. She has a 28-point lead over Trump with them.

Among older women (65 and older), Harris’ advantage is even greater: 35%. Older men favor Harris by two points.

Overall, Harris has a 20-point lead over Trump among women.

The poll shows Trump’s support among men overall has fallen from a 27-point lead over Harris in a September poll in Iowa to a 14-point lead.

If Harris significantly improves support in the state and that translates into Election Day, it could also mean improved chances for Democrats in other prominent races such as the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts and legislative races.

Trump won Iowa decisively in the last two elections. He beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 by nine points and Joe Biden in 2020 by a landslide.

About the Author: Midwest native Dave Price is the political director for Gray Television in Iowa, nine stations broadcast in the state, and has been covering local, state and national politics in Iowa since 2001.

Dave produces and hosts Inside Iowa Politics, a weekly in-depth show featuring interviews with top leaders about the policies, issues, challenges and decisions that impact the state.

He has written two books about Iowa factions (Caucus Chaos and Caucus Chaos Trump). Write to him at [email protected]. Follow him on X (Twitter): @idaveprice Meta/Facebook: Dave PriceNews Instagram: idaveprice and LinkedIn: Dave Price.

Dave welcomes your thoughts on what answers we should seek from policymakers and what issues are challenging our communities.

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