Can a deadlocked Holyrood agree to any major reforms?

This week has been dominated by talk about budgets and how financial capital can benefit government.

But political capital has also played a big role: the Scottish government has abandoned some major justice reforms and its plans to create a National Health Service look increasingly shaky.

The fire started by Humza Yousuf’s decision to terminate Bute House’s agreement with the Scottish Greens – and therefore his own premiership – continues to burn.

John Swinney is well aware of the fact that his administration does not have a majority in the House of Holyrood.

Since this now impacts the legislation they are trying to pass, what are the chances of any major reforms getting through parliament before the next election?

It was announced this week that sweeping reforms to the justice system would be watered down after Justice Secretary Angela Constance admitted they “lack cross-party support”.

Plans to hold rape trials by judges only have been scrapped, along with a proposal to reduce the number of juries.

What remains is essentially the proposal to overturn the “Not Proven” verdict – plans that Nicola Sturgeon’s government has proposed in 2022.

One of the biggest legacy projects of the sturgeon era, the NHS, looks increasingly doomed after the Greens joined other opposition parties in opposing the current vision.

The bill to create the service could be delayed at committee stage, and ministers are unlikely to make amendments that will please anyone.

Even if the bill somehow passes, the groups that actually help the system function, such as councils, health boards and staff unions, will also line up against it.

Finance Minister Shona Robison has already cut a number of government commitments in response to budget pressures.

It meant the return of peak rail fares, the end of free bus travel for asylum seekers and the decision to follow Westminster’s lead in means-tested winter fuel payments.

These financial cuts came after Yousaf’s administration abandoned a number of more controversial policies.

Sturgeon marine areas were cut, the deposit return program was abandoned, and attempts to defend Sturgeon-era gender reforms through the courts were abandoned.

Mr Swinney followed suit by pushing for a UK-wide approach to banning conversion therapy, hoping Sir Keir Starmer would bear the brunt of any emerging culture wars rather than leading the charge as Ms Sturgeon did with self-identification.

So what’s left?

There are several bills on the Holyrood table, but mostly they are now operating in safe territory that will not prove too controversial.

There are several major education reforms making their way through Parliament, including replacing the SQA and Education Scotland, but they are already familiar having been first announced in 2021.

There are also questions about what the new system will ultimately look like after ministers opted for a less radical approach than consultants had suggested when it comes to exams.

There is a Housing Bill which will introduce a new system of rent control.

But it too faces accusations of being too timid – the Greens say rent controls don’t go far enough and Labor says the bill doesn’t include building a single home.

MSPs are about to pass a bill with a new system of climate targets, but this only happened due to a failure to meet the old ones.

There is also a land reform bill, which was announced in the government’s 2021 program and is gradually going through various stages of consultation.

Land reform campaigner Andy Whiteman, a former MP, called it “the least ambitious land reform bill ever brought before the Scottish Parliament”.

Perhaps the most controversial measure before Parliament is the proposal for assisted dying for terminally ill adults, but it was introduced by Lib Dem MP Liam MacArthur and it remains unclear how senior members of the government will vote on it.

When it comes to anything politically complex, Holyrood is frankly at a dead end.

Russell Findlay is reorienting the Conservatives towards a position that is further at odds with the Scottish National Party’s big government approach.

The Labor Party is desperate to win power for itself. The Greens are still hurting and the Lib Dems are hoping for a recovery in time for the next election.

With this poll on the horizon, there is little incentive for the parties to start opening their arms to each other.

The government also doesn’t have much time left to come up with a new game-changing proposal if it wants to get it through parliament.

Swinney’s program for government was consistent with this grim political reality, offering very few new ideas for legislation.

There are some major proposals, such as a bill to criminalize misogyny, but they are the culmination of years of work. The Misogyny Bill is based on a review published in March 2022 and the proposals should receive broad support in Parliament.

The First Minister’s top priority is ending child poverty, but no major new reforms are planned. Instead, Swinney’s strategy appears to be aimed at integrating existing services and policies more effectively.

Financial pressure has eased somewhat, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves promising to give Holyrood an extra £3.4 billion next year.

However, the current political climate means that almost all of the government’s deal-making energy will be spent on passing its own budget.

Negotiations will be held with all parties, but concrete proposals are being made to the Greens to try to secure a deal through the direct line.

With additional Treasury funds, it may be possible to revive some of their pet projects and persuade them to at least hold off.

But beyond this budget bill, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see MPs, led by a party parliament that has been in power for 18 years, agreeing on anything significant.