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Who wins? What polls are showing in Pennsylvania and swing states now

Posted on by L. Dreeye
Who wins? What polls are showing in Pennsylvania and swing states now

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With only four days until Election Day, seven swing states continue to swing in the polls as presidential candidates enter the final stages of their campaigns to persuade undecided voters and rally more voters.

Most states consistently vote blue or red, such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over again between 2000 and 2016. But some states, called swing states or battleground states, lean differently in each election.

Both political campaigns are stretching their resources in critical states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, where the race is so close it could go either way.

Pennsylvania is considered critical to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to capture the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on Election Night.

So, who will become the 47th President of the United States? Will Trump return to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side, or will Harris become our first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?

Here are the latest updates on each swing state’s polls and odds compared to national polls and odds as we get closer to Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

Who is leading in swing state polls and who is being favored?

  • ABC News’ Project 538 shows Harris leading national polls +1.2%, Harris 47.9% to Trump’s 46.8%; Pennsylvania Trump leads by +0.7%; Arizona Trump leads by +2.4%; Georgia Trump leads by +1.8%; Michigan Harris leads by +0.8%; Nevada Trump leads by +0.3%; North Carolina Trump leads by +1.4%; And Wisconsin Harris leads by +0.2. Trump is now leading in 5 of 7 swing states compared to last week’s polls.
  • 270towin shows Harris leading Trump in national polls by 1.2%. Pennsylvania poll Trump leads Harris by only 0.6%; Arizona Trump leads by 1.8%; Georgia Trump leads by 1.9%; Michigan Harris leads by 1.6%; Nevada Trump leads by 0.2%; North Carolina Trump leads by 1.1% and Wisconsin Harris leads by 0.7%. Trump is also ahead in these polls in 5 of the 7 swing states compared to last week’s polls.
  • Realclearpolling shows betting odds for Trump are +0.3 greater than Harris, while Pennsylvania shows odds in favor of Trump +0.3; Arizona shows a coefficient of +2.3 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +2.6 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.8 in favor of Harris; Nevada shows +0.9 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +1.4 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.3 in favor of Harris. In 5 of 7 swing states, the odds have shifted in Trump’s favor since last week’s polls.
  • Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, points to bettors’ strong odds in the national race favoring Trump (62.7%) over Harris (37.4%). Pennsylvania shows Trump was favored by 56% over Harris’ 44%. Arizona shows Trump was favored by 76% over Harris by 25%. Georgia shows Trump was favored by 74% and Harris by 28%. Michigan shows Harris preferred by 56% to Trump by 45%. Nevada shows Trump was favored by 63% and Harris by 37%. North Carolina shows Trump was favored by 73% and Harris by 28%. Wisconsin shows Harris favored by 52% and Trump by 49%. Betting odds have moved 5 out of 7 in Trump’s favor since last week’s polls.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These figures were reflected as of Friday, November 1, 2024, at 9 a.m.

How accurate were the election results or polls in the last presidential election?

A betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866, according to the nonprofit news organization Conversation.

Survey results are more complex because different pollsters polling different audiences can often have a higher chance of error.

Confidence in public opinion polling suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, according to Pew Research.

In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.