What is the current “hit” broadcast rating?

“The broadcast is back, baby!” one network head recently shouted Diversity. And in fact they are not wrong. After the disastrous fall of last year, when strikes in Hollywood resulted in a largely improvised lineup, the networks are finally back in full force. And despite a sloppy launch derailed by elections, extreme weather events and a collapsing media business, broadcasting has reason to feel a little buoyant.

Fall TV is certainly not what it used to be, when broadcast was the only game in town. But as the industry adjusts to new normals in how viewers consume television, prime-time series are showing real resilience. As more data becomes available, there is unexpected interest in a new generation of traditional Big Four recipes.

ABC’s “High Potential” was an immediate hit, growing viewership for its first three episodes every week for the first time since Fox’s “Empire” in 2015. At CBS, “Matlock” impressed executives so much. that they picked it up for a second series after two episodes, while Georgie and Mandy’s First Marriage also picked up in its second week (and has also already received a renewal). Reba McEntire’s NBC comedy “The Happy Place” opened Friday on a night that left networks largely disappointed. And Fox was encouraged by first-week earnings from newcomer John Wells’ “Rescue: HI-Surf.”

It seems a little silly to call any of these entries a success based on overnight or live+same-day Nielsen ratings. These days, initial ratings tend to be dismal, which shouldn’t come as a shock: audiences have long since changed their TV habits, and the first night’s viewership totals are just the start of a long tail. “These days,” says Steve Kern, NBC’s senior vice president of content planning, acquisitions and strategy, “everything is a hit and nothing is a hit.”

Kern says decisions can’t be made based on real-time, same-day data, but it is a starting point. “There are so many original programs coming out every day and people are watching them on YouTube,” he says. “So you won’t be able to get information for days or weeks about how things are going.”

What’s a good starting number then? Of course, everything is relative: there is a time interval, competition, genre of the program, introduction. (The NFL, for example, will draw a huge audience in its final stretch, but it can’t be considered a hit.) “High Potential”‘s ratings trajectory provides one indication of what counts as a success: The show opened Tuesday, September 17 at 10 p.m.—a tough time slot. as that’s when viewers typically catch up, with 3.59 million viewers and a 0.35 rating in the adults 18-49 demo.

Another example is “Happy Place,” which pleasantly surprised NBC when it opened on Friday, October 18, with 4.03 million viewers and a 0.35 rating among adults 18-49. And during its premiere on Thursday, October 17, Matlock averaged 6.38 million viewers (from a 0.36 in the demo), while the series launch of Georgie and Mandy’s First Marriage averaged 6.56 million viewers and a 0.47 in the ranking. demo (CBS is not currently a Nielsen subscriber, but these ratings are still available to competitors.)

Think of these numbers as the new “live + same day” metrics. But what about the use of time shifting through DVRs and VOD (yes, they’re still a thing) and performance on streaming platforms like Hulu, Paramount+ and Peacock? Starting this year, Nielsen is now providing extended multi-platform numbers to its subscribers—so for the first time, networks have a better idea of ​​how their competitor’s shows are doing in subsequent weeks.

At this point, if you see a seven-day multi-platform number with 9 or 10 million viewers or higher, you’ve got something—like “Happy Place” or “High Potential”—that really appeals to a fairly broad audience. . And after 35 days, some shows—like ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” in its fourth season—can average 20 million viewers and even earn a 2, 3 or 4 rating in the demo.

“Live plus same day numbers don’t even remotely reflect the success of scripted programming. We’re seeing tremendous playout popularity, both on DVRs and, of course, on Hulu and our direct-to-consumer platforms,” says Ari Goldman, senior vice president of content strategy and planning at ABC. Add multi-platform ratings to the mix, and some shows are attracting audiences that would have made the network proud in the 2000s. “You’re getting closer to numbers that 15 years ago we thought were pretty solid.”

It can be said that this fall’s “High Potential” finds networks in the “Place of Happiness.”