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Eli Crane’s place in the game? Election observers adjust their forecasts

Posted on by L. Dreeye
Eli Crane’s place in the game? Election observers adjust their forecasts

As Election Day approaches, Democrats and some election observers are predicting that one of the congressional races in Arizona could be closer than expected.

With the Nov. 5 election just weeks away and early voting already underway, several election analysis firms have begun predicting Democrats are gaining ground in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, home to incumbent Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz. . facing a challenge from former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

The district has long been considered a safe bet for Republicans. Then, in quick succession, the nonpartisan interference of the Cook Political Report, Internal Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the district from the safest category to “likely” Republican.

That has added intrigue to the race in recent weeks, although analysts are careful not to overstate their ratings.

“I think Eli Crane still has a great chance to win,” said Kyle Kondik with Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “There’s just more activity and interest there than in the average safe GOP or Democratic seat.”

Democrats point to shifting ratings and recent polling as evidence the seat is already open.

However, despite the growing excitement, a Democratic victory would be unlikely.

“Crane is still the favorite here. This is not a toss-up contest,” Erin Covey said in the Cook Political Report. “But I think this race has turned into a race to watch.”

Signs that Nez is unlikely to win

If national Democrats believe the seat is up for grabs, it doesn’t affect their party’s campaign finances. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works to secure a Democratic majority in the US House of Representatives, has not committed any resources to the race.

By comparison, in Arizona’s highly competitive 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, the DCCC spent millions.

Moreover, the underlying layout of the district strongly favors the Republican Party. About 39% of the county’s active voters are Republicans, 30% are Democrats and 31% are unaffiliated with any political party, according to the Arizona Secretary of State. This makes it more Republican than the state as a whole and makes it safe territory for the GOP.

Jacob Rubashkin of the polling group Inside Elections said he believes no Democrat has won a district in a statewide race since at least 2016. Most of the time, Republicans’ margin of victory was in the high single digits or low digits. double figures.

For example, former President Donald Trump beat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 10 points in 2016, Rubashkin said.

“Politically, she has a strong track record of voting Republican at all levels of the ballot,” he said.

That’s one reason why in 2022, Crane, then a political newcomer, was able to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran, an established Democrat who had held the seat for years. Both sides spent millions of dollars on the race in the redrawn district, but O’Halleran lost by eight points.

The idea that Nez could surpass O’Halleran without financial support from national Democrats or the benefit of incumbency threatens some of the most sound rules of politics.

Crane himself said he was not concerned about the ratings change.

“It doesn’t bother me too much. We have a really good team,” Crane said in an interview at a Trump campaign event in October.

He declined to share the results of his team’s internal survey, but said “it’s much better than some of the stuff we’ve seen online.”

Democrats point to other encouraging signs

Still, Democrats pointed to the ratings as a sign it was in play.

There are some promising signs for Nez. First, he was actively involved in fundraising. In total, he raised about $4 million: not as much as Crane’s $7 million, but more than would be expected in a Republican stronghold.

According to Covey, this allowed Naz to outspend Crane on television advertising, while Crane began buying TV much later. Covey said Nez may have caught Crane “by surprise.”

Nez’s supporters are promoting a survey recently conducted by Noble Predictive Insights in early October. The poll of 414 likely voters showed the race tied, with both candidates receiving 42% support. Another 15% of voters are undecided.

There are reasons to view the poll with a grain of salt: It flies in the face of the county’s historical voting patterns and included responses collected through online surveys that some consider less reliable than telephone surveys. But the poll has had a huge impact because it is one of the few publicly available indicators of the direction the race is heading.

Kondik said the results showed Crane has “upside potential.”

“Because there are undecideds, you would expect them to lean more toward the Republicans,” he said.

Does Nez have a path to victory?

James Gravitt, Nez’s campaign manager, said Democrats’ path to winning the district is twofold: turn out Native American voters and convince new rural voters to choose Nez over Crane.

Nez’s support among native voters is not universal. He lost his bid for re-election to the Navajo Nation presidency in 2022 and continues to face opposition from some Republican-aligned tribal leaders. But if elected, he would become the first Native American to represent Arizona in Congress.

Without giving specifics, Gravitt said Nez’s campaign has excited local voters. He said their campaign is aiming for historic levels of turnout.

“There really is something special when you give a constituency someone to vote for rather than someone to vote against,” Gravitt said.

“If anyone could flip this chair, it would be someone like Nez,” Covey told the Cook Political Report.

However, the strength of the local vote is not enough to win the district. The county’s indigenous population is about 20%, according to census data, and turnout among that group is relatively low.

That’s why, in order to win, Nez needs to win the support of the rest of the district. Gravitt is betting that Crane’s scorched-earth style in Congress has alienated some voters who don’t trust him to get results.

“President Nez has proven himself time and time again to be the person and candidate of the people he runs for,” Gravitte said.

Rubashkin said it was “telling” that many of Nez’s television ads were apolitical, emphasizing important issues such as water management. The district’s partisan lean means Crane will want the race to focus on national issues such as immigration and crime, while Nez will want to talk about local issues that could persuade voters typically friendly to the GOP to defect from their party, he said .

Nez also tried to link Crane to Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake.

“Lake is losing this district to Gallego, and she is unpopular … even in a seat that Trump easily wins at the top of the ticket,” Rubashkin said.

Whether Nez wins or not, his candidacy could have a ripple effect on other key races in Arizona. Native voters helped carry Arizona to President Joe Biden in 2020, and the demographic is once again a highly sought-after voting bloc in this year’s ongoing presidential race.