It’s time to admit that the West is already at war with Russia

Another week has passed of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Moscow has crossed another line with its aggression against Western targets. This time the violation consisted of storing a parcel with a bomb in the luggage compartment of a German plane. The device exploded on the ground on the tarmac of the logistics center, and not in the air, only due to an accidental delay. The head of Germany’s domestic intelligence told the Bundestag that if the plane had been in the air, it would have crashed.

The UK suspects Russian involvement in a similar incident that occurred in July at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham. Of course, the attempted bombing of a DHL plane is far from the first incident in which Russia has targeted Western aircraft.

Ten years ago, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, two-thirds of whom were Dutch citizens. Russian proxies in the Donetsk region shot down a civilian airliner using an anti-aircraft system supplied by the Russian 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade under direct orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It has also been reported that North Korea supplies half of the artillery shells Russia uses against Ukraine, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is now sending up to 10,000 troops to aid Putin’s genocidal war.

It’s a match made in hell: Putin, fearing unrest if he orders further mobilization, gets fresh bodies for wave attacks on Ukrainian positions, while Kim gets Russian technical know-how in return.

Not surprisingly, some North Korean soldiers stationed in Ukraine have already deserted. Forced into battle, many of them will likely have little desire to sacrifice themselves in the meat grinders on the front line. However, expect Kim’s soldiers to be pushed forward by Russian forces who will inflict the same brutality they inflict on their own restrained troops. As in World War II, Russian blockade brigades mow down retreating soldiers.

Russia’s ever-deepening alliances with global autocrats and its ongoing “shadow war” against the West are nothing new, but they represent a deeply troubling reality.

It’s time to admit what most already quietly know: we in the West are already at war with Russia. Yes, fortunately, not a direct full-scale war, but an active war nonetheless. If we fail to respond decisively and forcefully to Putin’s ongoing aggression, this smoldering conflict could escalate into a more serious conflagration.

German intelligence officials offered a similar message, warning that “direct military conflict with NATO (becomes) an option for Russia,” perhaps as early as the end of the decade.

Western weakness only encourages Russian aggression, and the signs lately have not been encouraging. France has just announced that it will not fulfill its promise to provide 3 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine in 2024. there is ample evidence that the exact opposite approach is needed.

However, there are glimmers of hope. Putin’s need to rely on North Korean troops and continually sweeten the pot with larger bonuses upon taking office underscores the scale of Russia’s losses and the challenges he faces in replacing them.

Ukrainian officials, for their part, remain confident in their ability to recruit new soldiers, although they have expressed concerns about their adequate equipment. Belgium, Denmark, Germany and Norway recently announced a new $1.5 billion aid package for Ukraine that includes air defenses, tanks, armed drones and artillery.

A French project to develop kamikaze drones has announced successful tests: the first 100 units are planned to be delivered to Ukraine by the end of the year. South Korea is also reportedly considering direct military assistance to Ukraine in response to Russia’s use of North Korean troops on the front line.

The outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the broader shadow war against the United States and its allies remains in the balance. Much will depend on the political decisions of the next US administration. While there are clear pitfalls for any candidate in countering Russia, the next president has an opportunity to galvanize American resolve and begin to combat an out-of-control autocratic alliance through a renewed investment in hard power—an investment that will pay dividends over time. decades ahead. .

Europe must also take stock of itself: its pace of rebuilding its defense capabilities and industrial strength is not fast enough. The recent near-tragedy in European airspace should serve as a wake-up call to European leaders whose countries and civilian populations are on the front lines of Putin’s shadow war. The longer Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, the more brazen and reckless the shadow war will become.

If Russia succeeds in its fight against Ukraine, formalizing in the Russian Federation what it has seized by force and blocking Ukraine’s path to real security guarantees through NATO membership, Germany’s warning of a hot war by 2030 could prove prophetic.

To prevent such a future, Western leaders must say what we all already know; We are already at war with Russia. Ensuring that this war does not expand is not an impossible task, but it will require strong resolve and the realization that we are probably now at the top of the axis of history.

Read in Kyiv Independent.

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