Here’s one forecaster’s forecast for Maine’s Election Day outcome.

Campaigning for this year’s elections is almost over, as is voting for early voters.

All that remains is to count the votes and get the result.

To preview the contest on Tuesday Morning Edition, Irwin Gratz spoke with University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer, who says that in Maine, like the country, there seemed to be little movement in the race for the presidency.

This interview has been edited for clarity.

Brewer: Most people going into this race would say that the Democratic candidate, whether it was Joe Biden, when it was Biden, and then ultimately when it was Vice President Harris, that the Democrat would win statewide that a Democrat will win the election in Maine. Maine’s 1st Congressional District and that Donald Trump will likely win Maine’s 2nd Congressional District as he did in the last two presidential races. And I think that’s still true.

Gratz: We’re also hearing from some that the Electoral College gives an advantage to small states, but that would be ignored if we relied solely on the popular vote. But here we are in Maine. We are a small state. This season, none of the main candidates came to us, not even very many surrogates. So is it true that the Electoral College works for the benefit of a state like Maine?

There is some truth to the idea that the Electoral College provides some advantages to small states, but the claim is often exaggerated. What really benefits the Electoral College are the states where the race will be close, the swing states, versus any other state.

We have two races in the U.S. House of Representatives this year. Do you agree that they are fundamentally different?

Yes, they are absolutely fundamentally different. I mean, the race in Maine’s 1st Congressional District is not a race, right? I mean, it’s a foregone conclusion that Chelli Pingree will be re-elected. It’s hard to imagine a Republican or even an independent candidate winning Maine’s 1st Congressional District. This district becomes more Democratic every election cycle. I even believe that the perfect Republican candidate could be created in a lab and I think they would have a hard time winning Maine’s first CD. On the other hand, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is one of the most competitive House races in the country. We’ve seen, you know, huge amounts of outside money coming in as a result of this and in an election cycle where it’s virtually guaranteed that whichever party wins control of the House of Representatives will do so with a relatively small number of votes. margin, making Maine’s 2nd Congressional District not only important in Maine, but important nationally.

I know that incumbent Democrat Jared Golden has worked very hard over the years to sort of convince conservative voters in this district that he is not beholden to Democratic initiatives. Could this ultimately hurt him, given that there is a Democratic base in this district?

I’m sure the Democratic base in the 2nd Congressional District is not very happy when Rep. Golden makes statements like this. And I’m sure some of those voters, you know, will probably stomp their feet a little bit and say, “Well, I can’t support Representative Golden.” But what are they going to do in the end? Will they vote for Austin Theriault? Probably not. Are they going to stay home? May be. But generally speaking, you know, these voters tend to be pretty dedicated voters, and as we get closer to Election Day, when it comes down to the crunch, they may have to swallow hard, but they will make their choices. party, even if it is, in their opinion, not ideal compared to voting for an alternative party, especially when political polarization is so high.

This year we have legislative elections. Any idea where this will lead?

The Maine Legislature races are actually kind of classic low-information races. Unless you know someone who has his ear to the ground in the area you’re looking at, it’s difficult to say with any certainty where the races will be held. From what I’m hearing and seeing, I think it’s becoming generally accepted that Democrats are going to maintain control of the State Senate – not necessarily individual races, but, you know, sort of control of everything. Senate as a whole. I think the House of Representatives is more of a toss-up, doesn’t it? And the margin there is already quite narrow. I wouldn’t be surprised if either party takes control of the Maine House once the dust settles from Election Day.

As you know, many people are worried about what will happen after next Tuesday. Is there any indication that here in Maine, especially Republicans, are concerned about how our elections will go, how our ballots will be counted?

Well, you know, we’re certainly hearing from some Republicans some echoes of national concerns about voting security and voter fraud. You know, this has been repeated at the very top of the Republican Party, and it has been going on for years, despite very little, if any, evidence to support these claims. I think when I first came to Maine 20 years ago, Maine politics was significantly different from national politics, and you know, the state still had a very pragmatic, very collegial, very civil political atmosphere. Maine This has changed over time. Maine is probably still a more civic-minded nation, but it has become less so. I think we can still say with confidence that, you know, Maine is less likely than some other places in the country to see post-election unrest. But there were several Maine residents who were either charged or convicted for the actions of January 6 in Washington, DC. So perhaps we shouldn’t be so confident that Maine will be different. I hope I’m right, but I’m not sure I am.