North Carolina Polls Show Hurricane Helen Could Decide Trump-Harris Conflict

Fresh polls in the Tar Heel State show the presidential race couldn’t be closer, and perceptions of the government’s response to Hurricane Helen could ultimately result in the state’s 16 electoral votes going to either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris .

Tuesday’s tallies by WRAL/SurveyUSA and Elon University put the applicant ratio at 47% and 46%, respectively.

And in both cases, unprecedented destruction caused by the tropical storm and polarized perceptions of the official response and recovery are shaping the race, even as 3.1 million voters (40% of the electorate) have already cast their ballots.

A WRAL poll of 853 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23-26, found roughly 20% of Tar Heels say they were “personally influenced” by Helen, and Trump leads that group by one point.

Among those not injured, Harris leads by 1 point.

The Elon poll of 800 registered voters, which YouGov conducted from Oct. 10 to 17, offers a slightly more nuanced look at how partisan divides influence perceptions.

Sixty-eight percent of Democrats bought into the government’s view that Helen is “good” if not “very good,” while 24% of Republicans and 40% of independents felt the same.

Fifty-seven percent of Republicans and 45% of independents said government agencies do at least a “poor” job; only 12% of Democrats agreed.

And 84% of Republicans trust Trump more on storm response, with 89% of Democrats hailing Harris as the best option.

Trump questioned how motivated the response to the hurricane was in the state’s hard-hit mountains, saying the “federal government and Democratic state governor” were “going out of their way not to help people in Republican areas.”

Although Democrats and their allied media vigorously argue otherwise, polling data shows that the president’s claims are taken seriously among his base.

The Elon poll shows that hurricane response should be a top priority, given that 68% of respondents (including 55% of Republicans) believe storms are getting more severe, meaning Helen could be a harbinger of what’s to come in the region, which previously considered insulated from hurricanes. impact.

And as in some other battlegrounds, Republicans have actually reversed Democrats’ trend of being more active in early voting in previous cycles.

The GOP won about 35,000 ballots out of more than 3.1 million cast, a small lead that equates to a 1.1-point lead over Democrats.

Polls show Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be voters on Election Day. Next Tuesday, 52% of registered GOP voters will vote for Elon, compared to 44% of independents. The WRAL poll shows that 39% of likely voters from both parties have already voted, while 47% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats say they will vote.

With these polls included, Trump is up 0.9 points in the RealClearPolling state average.