Grid Lockdown: A Call for Regional Energy Solutions

FemiAkintunde-Johnson

Nigeria’s energy crisis remains one of the most striking symbols of its development problems. Decades of poor management, policy mistakes and underinvestment have left the country facing an outdated national energy system model that can neither meet current needs nor support future growth. The very concept of a single national network is increasingly at odds with Nigeria’s geographic and infrastructural realities.

The numbers tell a sobering story. The country’s basic electricity demand is approximately 22,000 MW for households and rises to 40,000 MW when industrial consumption is taken into account. However, the national grid, with a capacity of 7,000 MW, barely manages to supply 5,000 MW on its best days. . For comparison, the state Texasaccording to US Energy Information Administration (EIA), had an installed capacity of 132,942 megawatts as of June 2021 (independently they account for 12%-13% of the total energy production in USA), and its largest city, Houstonalone produces 6,000 MW, which is more than the capacity of Nigeria’s entire power grid.

Even more concerning are transmission and distribution losses. IN NigeriaNetwork inefficiencies result in transmission losses of 8–9%, while distribution losses range from 30–70%. The EIA estimates that about 5% of the electricity generated in the United States is lost each year during transmission and distribution. IN United KingdomPower losses are calculated at 1.7% (transmission) and 5-8% (distribution). The global average for both is 8-9% combined. Thus Nigeria loses billions of naira every year due to waste of energy, which contributes significantly to the country’s industrial stagnation and declining quality of life.

The global trend in power management, especially in large and diverse countries, is the move towards regional or embedded networks. These systems localize power generation and distribution, reducing transmission losses and ensuring that power plants directly meet the needs of their immediate areas before contributing any excess to the larger grid.

For Nigeriathe advantages of such a model are obvious. Power plants such as the Egbin Thermal Power Plant in Ikorodu, Lagoswith a capacity of 1320 MW (largest operating), must prioritize meeting the needs Lagos and its surroundings. Similarly, Papalanto (225 MW) in Ogun State, Omotoso (504.4 MW) in Ondo State, Sapele (1020 MW) and Ughelli (972 MW) in Ondo State power plants. Delta StateGeregu (435 MW) – Ajaokuta, Kogi State, Azura (461 MW) in Edo, and Kainji Dam (760MW), Jebba plant (578.4 MW), Shiroro (600 MW) and Zungeru (700 MW) – all four in Niger The state…can serve as an anchor for localized grids. States or regions without sufficient power generation capacity could form coalitions to develop power plants that meet their needs using the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) of 2005, which already allows private and regional power generation.

The embedded generation model is not hypothetical – it is already showing promising results in Nigeria. Aba Power Project (181 MW) in Abia State, for example, operates independently of the national grid, providing a stable power supply to its immediate area. This stimulated rapid development, proving that a reliable energy supply can be a catalyst for economic growth and social stability.

The insistence on using a centralized network model is a relic of past policies that prioritized uniformity over efficiency. For example, it is illogical to generate electricity in Calabar (562 MW) and transmit it thousands of kilometers for maintenance. Kanoespecially when transmission and distribution losses and weak infrastructure make such efforts futile. The lack of electricity generation infrastructure in some regions exacerbates these inefficiencies. For example, the northeast and northwest regions have almost no power plants of their own, instead relying on remote facilities in Niger And Kogi States.

On October 28, 2024The Punch newspaper reported: “…that the collapse of the national grid has become an ongoing problem in NigeriaMoreover, since the privatization of the electric power industry, 108 collapses have been recorded… In addition Niger and Kwara, 17 states in the North have been without power supply for the past two weeks. Most affected Kaduna, KanoJigawa, Gombe and Katsina are among others that have had no supplies for the past two weeks. Others – Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Adamawa, Taraba, NigerPlateau, Nasarawa, Kogi and Benue.

This over-reliance on a centralized network perpetuates regional differences and stifles localized innovation. Moreover, regional networks will promote accountability. Currently, a significant percentage of electricity consumers in states like Kano reportedly do not pay their bills. Localization of production and distribution will place responsibility directly on regional authorities and communities, encouraging better management and investment in maintenance.

Developed countries offer roadmap for Nigeria follow. United States operates three regional grids rather than a national one, with several power plants independently owned and operated. ChinaThe world’s largest electricity producer, with a much larger population and energy demand, operates two major regional power grids (the State Grid in the north and China Southern Power Grid in the south), which were synchronized in 2005 from six regional networks and three independent provincial networks, collectively generating 185,154 GWh (185 million MWh) monthly. A staggering six million megawatt hours per day! These systems are designed taking into account the geographical and industrial characteristics of each region, ensuring reliability and scalability.

In contrast, Nigeria It is struggling with just 23 large power plants, most of which are inefficient due to poor maintenance, corruption and insufficient funding. Our nation’s overburdened transmission infrastructure cannot cope with limited power generation, resulting in frequent grid outages and leaving millions of people in the dark. A short digression and a rough comparison: the largest state in the USA, Texashas more than 250 power plants.

To solve these problems, Nigeria must carry out bold reforms. The country must move from a national grid to a regional one, allowing states or geopolitical zones to independently manage power generation and distribution. It should encourage private sector investment in localized power plants with policies that support embedded and off-grid solutions. Transmission infrastructure requires modernization and expansion to reduce losses and improve reliability. There must also be strong policies to ensure that consumers pay for electricity while offering incentives for states and regions to invest in their own energy solutions. Finally, renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydroelectricity should be more seriously explored, especially in regions with limited traditional energy resources.

Nigeria’s energy crisis is not insurmountable. The tools and policies needed to transform the sector already exist; what is missing is the political will and coordinated action to implement them. The success of localized models such as Aba Power demonstrates that solutions are not only possible, but already achievable.

The cost of inaction is too high. Power shortages have crippled industries, raised the cost of living and left millions of Nigerians in perpetual darkness. It is time to abandon the outdated and inefficient national grid model in favor of a system that prioritizes regional autonomy, efficiency and sustainability.

Nigeriawhich produces 0.1% of the world’s total electricity and ranks 63rd (compared to the top four companies: China – 31%; USA – 15%; India – 6% Russia And Japan – 4%) must move beyond mere rhetoric and implement pragmatic solutions that reflect the realities of the country’s diverse and dynamic population. Anything less is a disservice to its people and a betrayal of its potential.

(This article was inspired by a caustic article by an unknown author in a group on a social network)