One census, three shifts: Lok Sabha, women empowerment, reservations

After a delay of four years, the Union government is gearing up to conduct the 2025 census, kicking off a crucial national undertaking that will serve as a framework for policy formulation and resource allocation. The scheduled 2021 census was postponed due to the Covid pandemic, marking an unprecedented pause in India’s 140-year history of collecting ten years of data.

However, the upcoming census not only promises a new look at the socio-economic landscape, but could also be a turning point in resolving contentious issues such as delimitation and caste representation. This process will begin next year and is expected to last until 2026. After the census, delimitation of Lok Sabha seats will begin and is likely to be completed by 2028, government sources said.

The potential impact of the 2025 Census on women’s reservations further underscores its importance. The Women’s Reservation Act 2023, which reserves 33 per cent of parliamentary seats for women, is linked to the census through a delimitation process. Only after constituency boundaries are drawn on the basis of the census can this historical clause be implemented, adding another layer of urgency to the census process.

Why the census matters
The census is more than just a head count. It provides the government with foundational data to make informed decisions on resource allocation, urban planning, health initiatives and education programs. Census data influences social security programs and various other government schemes that rely on accurate population data to determine action plans and beneficiaries. Since the last census was conducted back in 2011, India’s current socio-economic policies are based on data that does not reflect changes over the last decade, leading to potential inaccuracies in resource allocation and policy implementation.

Additionally, census data is critical in sectors such as health and education, where the government needs to know which areas lack amenities or services. Outdated data is projected to exclude at least 100 million people from food security programs, demonstrating the need for new, accurate information. However, the 2025 census will also bring with it new political debates, primarily around delimitation and caste data.

Delimitation debate

The delimitation or change of boundaries and distribution of seats in Lok Sabha constituencies based on population data is inextricably linked with the census. Article 82 and Article 170 of the Constitution mandate such reconfiguration after every census to ensure fair representation. The last delimitation exercise froze the number of seats based on the 1971 census to encourage population control. That freeze has been extended until 2026, and as the deadline approaches, the 2025 census will set the stage for a potential redistribution of parliamentary power.

However, this process is full of contradictions. Southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka fear that delimitation based solely on population data could reduce their representation in favor of northern states that are experiencing higher population growth. Southern states that have achieved effective population control now face the possibility of losing their seats in parliament, a prospect that is seen as punitive rather than fair.

In response, Southern state leaders advocate for a balanced approach to delimitation that does not disadvantage states with lower population growth rates. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin openly criticized the central government’s stance on the delimitation issue, stressing that states should not be penalized for their socio-economic progress and successful population control.

The mystery of caste counting
The debate over whether caste data should be included in the upcoming census has intensified, especially with demands from opposition parties such as the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) arguing that a caste-based census is necessary to understand the socio-economic situation. positioning of various communities. The central government is yet to take a decision on including caste enumeration in the 2025 census. While there are discussions about expanding the census data to include caste counts, official confirmation is yet to come.

Advocates believe that knowing the caste composition of a population can lead to more targeted affirmative action policies, addressing systemic inequalities in education and employment, and political representation. They argue that measuring caste data is necessary to develop evidence-based policies to enable the government to effectively address inequalities between castes. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has demanded a caste census, arguing that such an exercise would allow governments to base reservation policies on accurate information and would also show how resources are distributed among different castes, potentially revealing whether certain groups are monopolizing opportunities.

Experts suggest that including caste in the census could highlight caste inequalities and help the government design policies better suited to addressing structural disadvantages. However, they caution that the process must be carefully planned to avoid inaccuracies like those seen in previous attempts such as the 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC).

However, the Union government has so far resisted this. Citing administrative problems, the government says collecting detailed caste data will be difficult. The ruling BJP is wary of the caste census for several reasons. One key concern is that such polling could exacerbate social divisions by fueling identity-based politics. Moreover, conducting an accurate caste census poses logistical challenges due to the huge diversity of castes across states. There is also concern that taking caste into account could lead to higher reservation requirements, potentially changing the political landscape.

However, the growing demand for a caste census has gained momentum and even the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has expressed some support for the concept, albeit cautiously wary that it could be used for political gain. This resistance from the government, coupled with pressure from regional and caste parties, could turn the 2025 census into a battleground for India’s socio-political future.

Census of castes in India dates back to British rule, with the last comprehensive count being carried out during the 1931 census. Since then, data on caste has been largely excluded from national censuses, with the exception of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. In 2011, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) attempted to conduct a separate caste survey through the SECC, but the data was never released due to inaccuracies. Recent state-level caste surveys in Karnataka (2015) and Bihar (2023) have demonstrated the feasibility of effectively collecting such data; however, these efforts highlight the need for standardization under the Census Act.

The stakes surrounding the 2025 Census are higher than ever. This has significant policy implications for the government. Delimitation could shift seats in favor of northern states where the BJP has a stronger voter base, potentially impacting future elections. Conversely, adding caste counts could empower regional parties and the opposition, which argue that data transparency is vital for social justice. While India awaits details, some questions remain: Will the government conduct a caste count? Will delimitation bring fair representation? And ultimately, how will this census affect the distribution of power among our diverse states?

In the face of these challenges, the census becomes more than just a bureaucratic exercise but a blueprint for India’s future. Its results will affect not only government policy, but also the balance of power between states, the structure of political representation, and the social structure of the nation itself.