North Korea’s war with Ukraine is a nightmare for China

It is unclear whether China has given tacit approval to Kim Jong Un’s decision to send some 10,000 elite North Korean troops to fight alongside Russia in Kursk.

It appears that these forces will not be enough to turn the tide of the battle on their own, but they will be significant in further reducing Ukrainian supplies and forces. The move signals that China may be losing some influence over two states that are often perceived as its junior partners – Russia and North Korea.

Indeed, in recent months, many have noted that relations between China and North Korea have become colder. The Chinese ambassador notably missed the annual celebrations of the anniversary of the signing of the Korean Armistice earlier this year. Trade between Korea and China has also not yet recovered to pre-COVID levels, although Korea-Russia trade has increased sharply, although China continues to dominate the vast majority of North Korea’s exports and imports.

As always, China did not directly oppose this decision. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian squeamishly refused to comment on the developments beyond calls for peace and restraint. When asked about the growing closeness between North Korea and Russia, he simply replied that they were two sovereign countries with the right to get closer if they wanted.

However, Beijing has consistently downplayed North Korea’s ability to provide meaningful assistance to Russia. In addition, Xi Jinping eliminated the traditional language in the letter to Kim, which called North Korea a “friendly neighboring country.”

China’s ambassador to the United States also made an interesting statement on the day Secretary of State Austin confirmed that North Korean troops were in Russia. The statement rejected the idea that there is an axis of turmoil linking China, Russia, North Korea and Iran together. Although this statement is propaganda in nature, it is interesting for its timing and potential signal that China wants to distance itself, however minimally, from a group of revisionist states.

The EU and NATO have already begun pushing China to assert control over its client countries, threatening to increase military activity in the Indo-Pacific region as retaliation. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Kim’s decision brought South Korea closer to the West’s orbit and deepened ties between the “Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific” theatres. The bad news for China continues from Europe after the European External Action Service, the EU’s diplomatic corps, confirmed earlier this month that China was directly supplying Russia with lethal aid for its war effort, a major red line they had been warning about. there will be serious consequences.

The European Parliament condemned Beijing’s military drills around Taiwan, rejecting their interpretation of the “one China policy”, and condemned the ongoing genocide of Uighur Muslims in China’s far-western Xinjiang province. The European Union also approved, over Beijing’s strong objection, 34 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. They hinted that a number of other industries, including timber, tin, steel and chemicals, would be subject to similar investigations and tariffs in the coming years if Beijing’s unfair business practices do not change. NATO also invited several defense ministers from its Indo-Pacific partners to attend the joint summit for the first time.

Relations between Europe and China are deteriorating and look set to deteriorate. The confirmation hearings of several prominent European commissioners were accompanied by numerous rebukes against China. All of this poses challenges for China in its relationship with NATO, its freedom to operate in the Indo-Pacific region and, perhaps most importantly for China’s slowing economy, its trade relations with Europe.

Moreover, for all the reasons that relations between China and the DPRK are tense, China cannot afford to carry out a real pressure campaign on the unstable Kim. Amid Kim’s rising rhetoric of war with the South and West, China needs its leverage to keep peace in its backyard and cannot afford to be seen as alienating its only treaty ally. This leaves China in a serious quandary, with no real options other than to hope that the EU and US lose momentum in their concerted efforts to address Beijing’s role in the war against Ukraine.

The election of Donald Trump could bode well for China as Europe now faces the potential of two trade wars if it continues to strengthen its defenses against Chinese anti-market practices and fails to strike a deal with Trump to avoid his promised twenty percent tariffs. .

However, Trump’s victory also raises the stakes for China: China continues to rely on trade with Europe as a dumping ground for its manufactured goods, as well as imports of some sensitive technologies and other goods and services from Europe.

However, it now appears that their actions, and those beyond their control, will continue to complicate economic and security relations with Europe, while the international system as a whole becomes increasingly hostile to Chinese imports. The economy is slowing and security ties between China’s rivals are tightening.

About the authors

Liana Fix is ​​a Europe fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is a historian and political scientist with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, Eastern Europe and European China policy. Dr. Fix is ​​also the author of The New German Power. The role of Germany in European policy towards Russia (Palgrave Macmillan, 2021). She is an adjunct faculty member at Georgetown University in the Center for German and European Studies and the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies.

Benjamin Harris is a fellow on U.S. and European foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. He graduated from Stanford University with a bachelor’s degree in international relations, specializing in Northeast Asia and international security.

Image credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.