NFL Playoff Picture: Surprising Broncos, Team Rise; Cowboys take the hit

We’re not yet halfway through the season, but the NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape.

At least that’s true at the top of the standings, where the Chiefs, Texans, Lions, Steelers, Bills and even the surprising Commanders appear to be well on their way to a postseason berth. Everyone else is now just jockeying for position ahead of what could be a wild second-half playoff showdown.

Here’s a look at the NFL playoff picture, including which teams have the best chance of making the postseason after Week 8:

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (6-1)

There is simply no better or more complete team in the NFL right now than the Lions. And they’re firing on all cylinders after the Tennessee Titans rout. No team has a better 1-2 punch at running back than David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs. Jared Goff was nearly flawless at quarterback. They averaged 43 points over their last four games. They will be difficult to beat and they know it.

Playoff Probability: 94%

2. Washington commanders (6-2)

If anyone doesn’t believe in Jayden Daniels right now, nothing will convince them. He snatched victory from a close loss on Sunday with a 52-yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown on the final play. He also outplayed Caleb Williams, who was drafted one spot ahead of him, by completing 21 of 38 passes for 326 yards and a touchdown and rushing eight times for 52 yards. He is real, just like the Commanders, apparently. They have everything they need to stay in the race.

Playoff Probability: 71%

3. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)

They’ve turned the division around, beating the Bucs twice in the last four weeks – albeit almost every time. Kirk Cousins ​​definitely has Tampa’s number, as he has thrown for 785 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception in those two games. Now if he and the offense can do that in some of their other games, they’ll really have something going.

Playoff Probability: 77%

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

It was a good sign that their offense finally found some momentum in a 28-27 win in Miami, where QB Kyler Murray had his best game (307 yards, 2 touchdowns) and the offense scored its most points since Week 2. We are lucky that they are in a division where no one is on the right track yet. They won 3 out of 4, but looked underwhelming. And their protection remains a big problem.

Playoff chance: 32%

5. Green Bay Packers (6-2)

Yes, Malik Willis was relieved to lead the Packers to a win over the Jaguars, but they know their long-term fate depends on the status of QB Jordan Love. He suffered a groin injury early Sunday morning and played as much as he could, completing 14 of 22 passes for 196 yards and an interception. But he was pulled in the third quarter, and Green Bay will now wait to see how long he will be out.

Playoff Probability: 68%

6. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

They’ve lost two straight since starting 5-0, which is alarming because the last time they started 5-0 (2016), they finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs. To be honest, the last two weeks have been difficult for them. They narrowly lost to the Lions, 31-29, and then lost in Los Angeles when the Rams brought back receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The schedule will become much simpler.

Playoff Probability: 83%

7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)

After a shambolic start to the season, they’ve finally started to look good over the past two weeks. Their defense has played better under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. And new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is banking on their strong ground game. Even quarterback Jalen Hurts looks the same. He and Saquon Barkley proved to be the dynamic duo everyone expected. They are hot on the heels of the upstart Commanders after two wins in a row.

Playoff Probability: 77%

Appearance: Chicago Bears (4-3) got a bad beat by falling to Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary in Washington. They have a good enough defense to compete as long as rookie QB Caleb Williams plays better than he did Sunday (10 of 24, 131 yards). … Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) very active offensively, even after the loss to Atlanta on Sunday. But they lost Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for a month, and without their top two WRs that could be a problem. … It’s a testament to Kyle Shanahan and their defense that despite all their injuries, San Francisco 49ers (4-4) still tied for first place in the NFC West. But they’ll need RB Christian McCaffrey back soon, especially after Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year. … Seattle Seahawks (4-4) looked terrible against the Bills and are now heading in the wrong direction, having lost 4 of their last 5. … Los Angeles Rams (3-4) could be lurking as a dangerous team now that they have injured receivers Cooper Kupp and Puku Nacua back in the lineup. … Dallas Cowboys (3-4)meanwhile, they don’t look dangerous at all. The only good thing about their team is the connection between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, but that may not be enough.

AFK

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

They don’t look like the juggernaut they once were, they could use a No. 1 receiver, and there’s still something wrong with Travis Kelce. But they are undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in defense and offense, so doubt them at your peril. They still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and that really is more than enough to make them Super Bowl favorites until someone knocks them out.

Playoff Probability: 99%

2. Houston Texans (6-2)

The Texans earned a much-needed lead in the AFC South by beating the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. However, they don’t make it easy for themselves. They have such a well-balanced offense backed by a strong defense, but their struggles in the red zone nearly cost them. However, C.J. Stroud is as good as he was as a rookie, and the Texans have won four of five.

Playoff Probability: 97%

3. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

They are what they have been for several years now – a tremendous team that can beat anyone, thanks in large part to an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. They seem to have put a bad three-game road trip behind them (a blowout in Baltimore, a narrow loss in Houston, a narrow win in New York over the Jets). They also opened up space in the AFC East. But all eyes are on their huge test at home against the Chiefs in three weeks.

Playoff Probability: 96%

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

Give Mike Tomlin credit. His controversial decision to bench QB Russell Wilson and bench Justin Fields certainly shook up their offense last week. And they have a great chance to continue the momentum Monday night at home against the New York Giants. They have now won two games in a row, but it is clear that their fate depends on how well this quarterback move turns out.

Playoff Probability: 85%

5. Denver Broncos (5-3)

Nobody has done a better coaching job in the NFL this season than Sean Payton, who somehow got the Broncos to win five of six after an 0-2 start. They do this with one of the best defenses in the NFL. But don’t look now: Rookie QB Bo Nix just had the best game of his career (28 of 37, 284 yards, 3 touchdowns). He also threw just one interception in his last six starts. However, the competition will increase dramatically in the next two games.

Playoff Probability: 63%

6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)

A disappointing loss in Cleveland on Sunday slowed what had been the NFL’s most impressive run of five straight wins after an 0-2 start. Although, perhaps this is just a temporary setback. For some reason, the Ravens only passed the ball to Derrick Henry (73 yards) 11 times in this game. The last five games were to prove to them that when he gets going, so do they.

Playoff Probability: 87%

7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

The Chargers found themselves in a temporary playoff spot with a win over the devastated New Orleans Saints. But they don’t intend to stay there long if they can’t keep up the offensive. Despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback, they have somehow averaged just 16.8 points over the last five games and topped 23 points only twice. This won’t happen in an offensive league.

Playoff Probability: 68%

External teams look: Indianapolis Colts (4-4) slipped out of the top 7 when they narrowly missed beating the Houston Texans on Sunday. They won’t catch the Texans in the AFC South and stay in the playoff race without some improvements on offense. QB Anthony Richardson has struggled and their offense has averaged just 285.3 yards over the last three games. … Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) There are also annoying problems. After Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, they have averaged just 269 yards and 18 points over the past three weeks, a disgrace for a team that features QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase. But it is obvious that they are capable of more, which makes them dangerous.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that he covered the Giants and NFL for 16 years for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

---

---