‘World’s Most Accurate Economist’ Predicts Trump or Harris Win and Its Shocking Impact on GDP

Christophe Barrot, with extensive forecasting experience and known as the most accurate economist in the world, turns his attention to the upcoming 2024 elections and their potential economic consequences. He expects growth to accelerate once the election results are known as companies shake off uncertainty and start making decisions again.

But while he is confident that GDP will beat expectations, he also warns of potential pitfalls, especially if Trump’s tax cuts balloon the deficit. With a history of successful predictions, he now faces the most asked question: who will be in the White House, Trump or Harris?

Christophe Barrault predicted who will win the US elections in 2024

Bloomberg darling Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities Monaco, a leading US forecaster, presented Business Insider with three scenarios that could happen after the president wins.

In the first scenario, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins but Congress splits, there won’t be much change in the economy. Most likely, everything will remain the same. Since Harris currently serves as vice president in the Joe Biden administration and her negotiations are largely focused on strengthening current policies, the announcement fits right into the situation.

In the second scenario, if former President Donald Trump wins but Congress is divided, he won’t be able to easily cut taxes on businesses and individuals. In this case, the chances are high that he will focus his attention on foreign policy, leading to faster imposition of trade restrictions and tariffs, which could harm global growth. According to the BI report, this situation will keep US GDP stable in the short term, but could harm the economy in the long term as other countries react to it.

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The third scenario predicts a Trump victory with a Republican majority, which is seen as the most likely outcome. If things improve, Trump could cut taxes on people and companies and focus more on issues happening in the US. Right now, it could help the U.S. economy grow faster, perhaps by 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025, he suggested.

What is the growing US deficit?

During the conversation, Barro shared the views of his high-profile technology clients, including large banks and hedge funds, on their concerns about the growing US deficit, especially if Trump is elected and implements tax cuts. Currently, large corporations are refraining from making important decisions due to the uncertainty of who will win the election by a narrow margin, which can swing in either direction and affects economic growth.

While he said GDP would rebound sharply, he also raised concerns about what might happen if Trump is elected and decides to cut taxes. Those cuts could squeeze government revenue, raising questions about how high the deficit could grow and what that could mean for the 10-year Treasury yield.

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Barro believes that if Trump wins, the 10-year Treasury rate could rise to at least 4.5%, above the current level of 4.23%. If Trump doesn’t get enough support in Congress, bonds could rise a little more to 4.35%. But if Republicans succeed, bond rates could rise to 5%. The increase would come because investors could demand more money back to offset higher risks, especially if Trump imposes stricter immigration rules in a healthy labor market, which could cause more inflation.