3 New York Mets free agents to sign, 2 to avoid

In the waning days of 2020, Steve Cohen descended from the lofty perch of Point72 Asset Management to the owner’s box at Citi Field, seeking to rescue Mets fans from the doldrums of mediocrity of their favorite baseball team. As a hedge fund manager, the new owner came with an insurmountable amount of money and the ever-ambitious goal of taking a beaten Mets team to the World Series in 3-5 years. But by the start of the 2024 season, the Mets had only reached the Wild Card round after a 101-win season.

Once 2024 started, it looked like another losing season in the Wilpon years. Then something remarkable happened. On June 12, the handsome face put on a Mets cap, walked out of his McDonald’s and headed to the mound before the Mets even started the game. Unlike the moon landing, this first step on the mound was something historical; Mets fans just didn’t know it yet.

At a birthday party where, unfortunately, there were no purple milkshakes, Grimace stepped back and threw out the first pitch. There was no immediate celebration, it was just a normal first pitch like most others, but what followed was the story of the Mets’ greatest underdog since the Miracle Mets defeated the Orioles in the 1969 World Series.

Since then, losses have become rare, and winnings have accumulated. But it didn’t last long. In Game 6 of the NLCS, the Dodgers ended the Mets’ World Series hopes, extinguishing the purple effervescent glow of grimace magic that hung heavily over the Queens. Having come so close, Cohen has his sights set on 2025, eager to finish what he started and ready to throw the vault doors wide open in pursuit of a championship. But which free agents could bring the Mets a trophy, and which ones should they avoid?

For starters, targets like Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are logical targets that are already on Cohen’s radar or courting. So let’s take a well-deserved look at some less obvious options.

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3. Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez represents a great opportunity to acquire a reliable outfielder. In 2024, the defending World Series champion hit .272/.339/.501/.840 with a career-high 33 home runs and earned his third Silver Slugger Award. Let’s take another quick look at his 2024 season: career high in home runs, Silver slugger, Home Run Derby champion and World Series champion. By all accounts, Hernandez is having a dream season.

Since 2021, Hernandez has been a key source of RBIs for three different teams. His presence in the center of the lineup was important to the 2022 Blue Jays and 2024 Dodgers advancing to the postseason. But Hernandez’s year with the Dodgers was more notable because he proved to be a key part of their lineup when several key players were injured and absent.

But his regular-season heroics aren’t the end of his accolades. In 75 postseason appearances, Hernandez has hit five home runs and maintains a .341 on-base percentage. With his reputation, Hernadez should attract the attention of every competitive team looking for a solid mid-level bat that can hit for both power and average.

2. Walker Buehler

One of the key issues the Mets faced in 2024 was pitching. As a team, the Mets posted a 3.96 ERA, ranking 15th in MLB. Notably, Kodai Senga was injured in all but one game. The Mets will be in better shape when he returns, but their starting rotation will need an overhaul. One arm Cohen should be looking at can be returned to top form at little cost.

When Walker Buehler began his career, he was a young player ready to take the MLB by storm. Fast forward to today; Buehler has pitched just 140.1 innings since the start of 2022. Persistent injuries prevented him from taking his place on the mound, and he missed all of 2023. And to find a year when he pitched well, we have to go back to his last full year in 2021. He posted a career-best 2.47 ERA. Over his last 140.1 innings, dating back to 2022, Buehler has posted a 4.75 ERA. So why would anyone want an oft-injured pitcher who hasn’t performed very well over the last three years? There is one reason, and it is a serious one.

Buehler is one of the best postseason players in recent history. Over a whopping 94.2 postseason innings, Buehler maintains a 3.04 ERA with 119 strikeouts. In the 2024 postseason, Buehler had the worst postseason start of his career, giving up six runs in five innings to the Padres during the NLDS. He bounced back, eliminating the Mets in four and the Yankees in five, then ending the World Series with one clean inning, a streak of 13 scoreless innings (including three innings after his second inning against the Padres). His World Series ERA ranges from 0.47 to 19 innings.

With injuries hampering his career, he will likely come cheap, reducing potential risks and giving Cohen some support in his pursuit of top-tier stars like Soto and Alonso. If Buehler can stay healthy, he will likely give his new club the most bang for their buck.

1. Corbin Burns

Corbin Burns is undoubtedly the best player on the market this offseason. As it happens, the Mets are rumored by several outlets to be his best landing spot. Given Cohen’s lack of financial constraints, there’s a chance the Mets could acquire several superstars this offseason, and Burns could be one of them.

Burns is coming off another stellar season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 194.1 innings for the Baltimore Orioles. His 8.38 strikeouts per nine rate is the lowest of his 7-year career, but it doesn’t seem to have impacted his effectiveness. As a full-time starter, Burns only finished one season with an ERA above 3.00, the 3.39 he hit in 2023.

Burns’ talent was on full display in 2021 as he won the NL Cy Young with a 2.43 ERA while also winning his only ERA title. The following season he led the NL in strikeouts. After becoming the primary starter, Burns appeared in the Cy Young race only once each season.

As one of the best hurlers in the game, Burns is in line for a nice payday. But with the deepest pockets of any MLB owner and the desire to spend big, we can expect Cohen to keep the Mets on the roster.

2. Max Fried

Max Fried is having another quality season with the Braves. In 174.1 innings, the left-handed star posted a respectable 3.25 ERA with 166 strikeouts. He missed nearly a month with a midseason forearm injury. Since 2020, Fried has thrown an ERA between 2.00 and 3.00. To his list of achievements can be added three Golden Gloves in three consecutive years, from 2020 to 2022. He won the Silver Slugger in 2021, but that achievement isn’t a factor in his impressive resume. But why should the Mets avoid him given his long list of accolades?

First, Max Fried hasn’t gone a season since 2018 without suffering at least one injury (Fried debuted in 2017, pitching 26 innings). Injuries limited him to 77.2 innings in 2023. But his injuries aren’t that big of a deal. Unlike Walker Buehler, they rarely stopped him from throwing a reasonable number of innings. So why is Bühler better?

First, Buehler will cost less because Fried had a great year and Buehler missed most of it. But the second reason creates a sharper contrast between their reputations. Max Fried maintains a postseason ERA of 5.10 in 67 innings. His final postseason start helped that number rise. Fried gave up five runs in just two innings. In his defense, he has had a lot of bad luck hitting the ball softly. But even a good start could not compensate for numerous failures in the postseason. To his credit, Fried tossed several postseason gems, including six and seven shutout innings. However, the number of times he was punished far outweighs his jewelry.

Make no mistake, Fried is a great pitcher. But for the money it may not be worth it. If the Mets make it to the postseason and are quickly kicked out for shaky pitching, Cohen’s entire investment (in baseball terms) will be for naught. There are more reliable options on the market than Fried.

1. Luis Severino

The Mets’ free agents this offseason include a former star hurler. Seemingly a flash in the pan during the early years of his Yankees career, Luis Severino had trouble staying healthy and pitching well. From 2019 to 2023, Sevy pitched just 209.1 innings. Most of his absences were injury-related, but the Yankees had enough in 2023 after Severino posted a stunning 6.65 ERA. However, he returned for his first season with the Mets. Severino pitched to a 3.91 ERA with 161 strikeouts in 182 innings. But there are still concerns.

Even if this was his best year in recent memory, his 3.91 ERA wasn’t anything special. He’s still putting up elite stuff, but he has yet to recapture his game as a young Yankee, when he posted ERAs of 2.98 and 3.39 for back-to-back years. There is still potential, but the results don’t show it. In the 2024 postseason, Sevy posted a remarkable 3.24 ERA. This included two games with nearly identical results in which he pitched six innings, giving up three earned runs in each. Sevy bounced back, pitching 4.2 innings of no earned runs against the Dodgers. The Mets allowed three unearned runs under his leadership. Last postseason, Sevey’s career postseason ERA dropped to 4.62 in 60.1 total innings pitched.

This offseason, the Mets offered Severino a qualifying offer, which he declined. This may have been a disruptive move as the 2024 numbers still left much to be desired. To be honest, Severino is still a question mark. We don’t know what to expect from him. He may still be an exceptional pitcher, but with the Mets looking to contend and sitting on an endless pile of money, Luis Severino is not a risk they should take.