Guardians and Triston McKenzie avoid arbitration

Guardians and Righty Triston McKenzie agreed to the deal to avoid arbitration, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports on X. The Octagon client will receive a $1.95 million salary in 2025.

MLBTR staffer Matt Schwartz projected McKenzie’s salary next year to be $2.4 million, but he actually falls short of that amount. This usually applies to transactions agreed upon during this part of the calendar.

Friday night is the deadline for clubs to decide whether to sign arbitration-eligible players. There will still be plenty of time for both sides to negotiate the numbers, but clubs sometimes offer take-it-or-leave-style deals ahead of the deadline for players in borderline cases who should be put up for tender first. These “pre-tender” deals often end up being lower than expected because the club is essentially offering the player a lower salary or he won’t be put up for tender and will be sent to free agency.

It’s a remarkable position for McKenzie considering how things looked just two years ago. By the end of the 2022 season, he had thrown 344 2/3 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He struck out 27% of the batters he faced while issuing walks only 8.1% of the time. Since the Guardians had a formidable reputation for finding and developing starting pitching, it seemed like they had found another rotation building block.

But Mackenzie has had a tough time since then. He was injured for most of 2023, initially with a large right teres sprain. He came off the IL and made a couple starts, but was immediately put back on the shelf, this time with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. He opted for non-surgical rehabilitation and was able to return for two more starts at the end of the year.

Any hopes of an economic recovery in 2024 were quickly dashed. His speed had slowed and he was clearly not in the best mental state. Although he was not in pain, he said in mid-April that the possibility of being injured again weighed heavily on him. He was optioned to the minors in June after making 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate were much worse than his previous work. He posted a 5.23 ERA in Triple-A the rest of the way with roughly identical strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 13.9%, respectively.

More to come.