Despite defeat in Paris, the real reason the All Blacks are feeling optimistic

Last week wasn’t a good week for the All Blacks, losing to France in Paris and consequently failing to exorcise any demons that may have lingered there since last year’s World Cup opening and final game.

It was disappointing for the coaching staff that for the fourth time this year the All Blacks had lost a game they should have taken after they had raced through France for 40 minutes. Failure to land the killer blow, unfortunately for head coach Scott Robertson, has been the story of the All Blacks’ 2024 season.

They kept South Africa on their toes twice earlier this year but were unable to find a way through the final quarter to counter the bomb squad. And they controlled their first Rugby Championship test against Argentina, but later retired again.

History repeated itself in France when, after leading 17–10 at half-time (a first half in which they forced their opponents to make 111 tackles), they conspired to lose their way again with a series of minor errors and undisciplined moments. , a bit of tough refereeing and classic French opportunism.

The game, which should have been won, was ultimately lost by a single point, and the dream of completing their five-game northern tour died, as did the prospect of finishing the season with an 80 percent win rate.

Now the best the All Blacks can achieve if they beat Italy in Turin is a 71 per cent return – a figure that matches what they achieved in 2022 and nearly sacked Robertson’s predecessor, Ian Foster.

But despite the setback in Paris, the All Blacks, and indeed the wider New Zealand rugby community, had plenty of reasons to feel it had been a great weekend, and that the last few weeks have potentially provided good reasons for optimism about the immediate future. future as they demonstrated how rugby’s world order could potentially change in this World Cup cycle.

The All Blacks have made some impressive breakthroughs in Paris, but most important is the success of their strategy to avoid throwing the ball back into France.

The All Blacks have struggled all year to implement a smart and planned kicking strategy, which is why Damian McKenzie was sidelined at the end of the Rugby Championship.

The All Blacks have struggled all year to implement a smart and planned kicking strategy, which is why Damian McKenzie was sidelined at the end of the Rugby Championship.

The coaches had lost faith that he could use his boots to punish and put teams under pressure and so turned to the more experienced and reliable Beauden Barrett to fill that role.

But against France, they simply didn’t hit the ball at all, trying to knock the French off their feet. Every time Antoine Dupont or Thomas Ramos hit high or long shots, the All Blacks – be it Will Jordan, Barrett, McKenzie, Caleb Clarke or Sevu Rees – never dared to hit back after winning the ball.

It was a relatively high risk, but players like Jordan cover ground so well that he was able to ensure that by the time he reached the French defensive line, he had enough support around him to avoid being overturned.

And it allowed the All Blacks to hold the ball longer and go through more phases than in any other game this year, and they forced France to make 111 tackles in the first half and a total of 208 in the second. game.

🇳🇿 New Zealand opens an account in Paris!

💪 Flair, strength and power gain @AllBlacks on the scoreboard!#AutumnNationsSeries | #FRAvNZL pic.twitter.com/fohGhEBllP

— Rugby on TNT Sports (@rugbyontnt) November 16, 2024

The result left the French out of breath and struggling at times, but after two well-judged and clinical tries in the first half, the All Blacks lacked the precision to deliver the killer blow in the second.

They didn’t have the passing precision or time to finish off promising situations and once when Tupou Vaii unloaded the ball from a Will Jordan tackle it ended up being 14 points.

His pass went behind Jordan, who, had the ball been in his hands, would have gone home and scored, but instead it resulted in Louis Biel-Biare touching down for France.

We wanted to keep the ball and put a lot of pressure on them, forcing them to make a lot of tackles,” confirmed Robertson after the game.

“We probably could have hit a little bit more at times and maybe if we had caught that last pass we would have been glad we kept the ball.

The All Blacks also achieved a major off-field result last week as their preferred candidate Brett Robinson was elected as the new chairman of World Rugby.

“It’s a good return in that regard, but we certainly created a lot.”

And the fact of the matter is that holding the ball longer has allowed the All Blacks to create more than enough opportunities to win the game, and if they are brave enough to continue with a much higher run-to-strike ratio, then they may find that they did it. a formula that plays to their strengths and challenges the strength athletes favored by South Africa, France, Ireland and England.

The All Blacks also achieved a major off-field result last week as their preferred candidate Brett Robinson was elected as the new chairman of World Rugby.

Robinson told the NZ Herald ahead of the vote: “We’ve become a power game with short bursts and big bodies and we have a desire to get back to the center where endurance, agility and fatigue free up the game.”

The message said that if he got the job, he would like to continue pushing for changes to the laws that would make the games more aerobic and free-flowing, and that teams would feel encouraged to play with the ball rather than without it. .

But the bigger reason why it was actually a good week for New Zealand was Australia’s continued resurgence, confirmation that Argentina are genuine contenders and the Springboks’ continued dominance.

The results of the last two weeks suggest that the balance of power that began to tip at the World Cup has shifted further towards the teams playing below the equator.

It became clear that South Africa, in essence and by any other subjective measure, was the number one team in the world.

As for Australia, they are going to make many northern pundits choke with their poorly chosen words about the Wallabies being a waste of time for the British and Irish Lions who play next year.

On the next rung there appears to be nothing between New Zealand, France and Ireland, and then perhaps England, Argentina, Australia and perhaps Scotland are a rung down.

This means that the Southern Hemisphere now has a basis for mutually improving each other, toughening each other up and bringing out the best in each other.

The Pumas reached the semi-finals of the World Cup, but that may have had more to do with a good draw than any sustained skill on their part.

They now look like genuine contenders, having beaten the All Blacks in Wellington, the Boks at home and then came within a hair’s breadth of upsetting Ireland in Dublin. It says everything about their attitude and belief that they were genuinely upset that they didn’t kick Ireland out.

As for Australia, they are going to make many northern pundits choke with their poorly chosen words about the Wallabies being a waste of time for the British and Irish Lions who play next year.

The Wallabies, more than Argentina, are excellent game improvers and, having shown signs of recovery against the All Blacks in their last two Rugby Championship matches, they enjoyed their breakthrough at Twickenham with an incredibly brave and innovative attempt to secure an unlikely victory . victory and then destroyed Wales.

Wales are going through a terrible period, but it was Wales who inflicted a record World Cup defeat on the Wallabies a year ago and Australia’s rise over the last 13 months under Joe Schmidt has been remarkable.

And it is the recovery and rejuvenation of Argentina and Australia that will have the greatest impact on the All Blacks reaching new heights this World Cup cycle.

At first glance, last week was a bad week for the All Blacks. But if you dig a little deeper, it turns out that this week should inspire optimism and confidence in the future.

There are no easy games in the Rugby Championship at the moment and this gremlin that the All Blacks have due to their inability to finish teams has a better chance of the system being worked out now that Argentina and Australia are resurgent.

The All Blacks simply won’t win enough Tests unless they are at their best, and after years of dominating Australia and sending their B team to play Argentina, they will find in 2025 that unless they discover a ruthless series and learn to be impartial and accurate in important moments, and then they will collapse in the world rankings.

At first glance, last week was a bad week for the All Blacks. But if you dig a little deeper, it turns out that this week should inspire optimism and confidence in the future.